CA River Plate vs. Racing Club: O/U 0.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 90¢ · $238 held · ended Oct 25

Over90¢Under10¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$237.6

Combined PnL

-$41.12

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 90.3¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over90%

Under10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$190.06

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$8.17

Under1 trader

Total Value$47.54

Total Shares490

Combined PnL-$32.95

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx	Overavg 92.4¢	$95.21	$102.9	+$1.1	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
LO looppau<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$91.2	$82.43	-$8.76	99% 7795-38 (7833)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 6.8¢	$33.2	$47.54	-$32.95	55% 45430-37648 (83078)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$5.23	$4.73	-$0.5	56% 1868-1468 (3336)

LeLynxMalynx

Over

Invested

$95.21

Value

$102.9

PnL

+$1.1

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

looppau<$100

Over

Invested

$91.2

Value

$82.43

PnL

-$8.76

Record

99%

7795-38 (7833)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.2

Value

$47.54

PnL

-$32.95

Record

55%

45430-37648 (83078)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$5.23

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.5

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.7%

90.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.