Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Racing Club (71%) · Racing Club at 54¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 25

CA River Plate46¢Racing Club54¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Racing Club

Consensus Traders

Racing Club 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.3K

Combined PnL

$377.25

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 54¢

-10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralRacing Club at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Racing Club

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

CA River Plate46%

Racing Club54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Racing Club10 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares17,513

Combined PnL+$986.45

CA River Plate4 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares17,260

Combined PnL-$609.2

Racing Club — 71%CA River Plate — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Racing Clubavg 60.5¢	$5.9K	$6.9K	+$1.1K	68% 31996-15360 (47356)
DE DelidelaDeleCTR	CA River Plateavg 40.9¢	$16.0K	$5.9K	-$627.1	48% 29-31 (60)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Racing Clubavg 59¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$50	47% 2048-2287 (4335)
VeryLucky888	Racing Clubavg 61¢	$732	$672.31	-$35.18	58% 32399-23548 (55947)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Racing Clubavg 59.3¢	$438.44	$436.55	-$1.89	56% 6455-5169 (11624)
└ Racing Club leg	Racing Clubavg 59.3¢	$274.44	$268.55	-$5.89
└ CA River Plate leg	CA River Plateavg 41¢	$164	$168	+$4
CA Cannae	Racing Clubavg 59¢	$332.35	$326.92	-$5.43	53% 13688-12137 (25825)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	CA River Plateavg 28.3¢	$257.68	$259.14	+$1.46	52% 16709-15271 (31980)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Racing Clubavg 60¢	$255	$246.48	-$6.39	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
BA Bayupati	Racing Clubavg 59¢	$245.71	$241.55	-$2.08	50% 163-161 (324)
SN SnakeBall	Racing Clubavg 61.5¢	$153.16	$177.01	+$23.86	50% 9057-8986 (18043)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	CA River Plateavg 37¢	$122.38	$138.92	+$16.54	50% 1033-1030 (2063)
HRTrading<$100	Racing Clubavg 59¢	$12.98	$12.76	-$0.22	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	CA River Plateavg 38¢	$7.6	$8.4	-$0.1	61% 4723-2962 (7685)
SL slimjoe<$100	Racing Clubavg 58¢	$1.51	$1.51	-$0	52% 5440-5053 (10493)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Racing Clubavg 58¢	$1.38	$1.38	-$0	50% 7903-7970 (15873)

UpTheBlues

Racing Club

Invested

$5,859.48

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

68%

31996-15360 (47356)

DelidelaDeleCTR

CA River Plate

Invested

$16,000

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$627.1

Record

48%

29-31 (60)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Racing Club

Invested

$2,950

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$50

Record

47%

2048-2287 (4335)

VeryLucky888

Racing Club

Invested

$732

Value

$672.31

PnL

-$35.18

Record

58%

32399-23548 (55947)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Racing Club

Invested

$438.44

Value

$436.55

PnL

-$1.89

Record

56%

6455-5169 (11624)

Both legs:

Racing Club$274.4459.3¢-$5.89

CA River Plate$16441¢+$4

Cannae

Racing Club

Invested

$332.35

Value

$326.92

PnL

-$5.43

Record

53%

13688-12137 (25825)

GoalLineGhostCTR

CA River Plate

Invested

$257.68

Value

$259.14

PnL

+$1.46

Record

52%

16709-15271 (31980)

LeLynxMalynx

Racing Club

Invested

$255

Value

$246.48

PnL

-$6.39

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

Bayupati

Racing Club

Invested

$245.71

Value

$241.55

PnL

-$2.08

Record

50%

163-161 (324)

SnakeBall

Racing Club

Invested

$153.16

Value

$177.01

PnL

+$23.86

Record

50%

9057-8986 (18043)

mooseborzoiiCTR

CA River Plate

Invested

$122.38

Value

$138.92

PnL

+$16.54

Record

50%

1033-1030 (2063)

HRTrading<$100

Racing Club

Invested

$12.98

Value

$12.76

PnL

-$0.22

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

CA River Plate

Invested

$7.6

Value

$8.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

61%

4723-2962 (7685)

slimjoe<$100

Racing Club

Invested

$1.51

Value

$1.51

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

5440-5053 (10493)

LuckyLoo<$100

Racing Club

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

7903-7970 (15873)

Research grade

NeutralRacing Club at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Racing Club

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Racing Club wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.