Will CA River Plate win on 2026-10-25?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 84¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes84¢No16¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$69.41

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 83.5¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,730

Combined PnL+$39.77

No8 traders

Total Value$407.21

Total Shares1,968

Combined PnL-$109.18

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Yesavg 73.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$27.86	57% 1510-1118 (2628)
MO mooseborzoii	Yesavg 65¢	$201.96	$208.18	+$6.21	50% 1033-1030 (2063)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 20.1¢	$226.09	$197.98	-$28.11	68% 31996-15360 (47356)
└ No leg	Noavg 20.1¢	$189.74	$156.09	-$33.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 72.5¢	$36.35	$41.89	+$5.54
RN1CTR	Noavg 24.8¢	$288.17	$191.54	-$96.63	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 31.9¢	$139.27	$144.26	+$4.99	52% 16709-15271 (31980)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Yesavg 72.5¢	$84.97	$88.71	+$3.74	53% 12381-11073 (23454)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$38.89	$40.91	+$2.02	46% 1581-1835 (3416)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 81.9¢	$29.75	$29.63	-$0.12	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 26.1¢	$43.47	$28.32	-$15.15	50% 9057-8986 (18043)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$15.37	$15.85	+$0.48	51% 6950-6596 (13546)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$10.89	$11.59	+$0.7	58% 32399-23548 (55947)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$11.15	$9.51	-$1.64	53% 13688-12137 (25825)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.15	+$0.05	55% 4982-4149 (9131)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$3	$3.3	+$0.3	52% 5543-5167 (10710)
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$5.07	$2.83	-$2.24	53% 575-517 (1092)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$1,195.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$27.86

Record

57%

1510-1118 (2628)

mooseborzoii

Yes

Invested

$201.96

Value

$208.18

PnL

+$6.21

Record

50%

1033-1030 (2063)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$226.09

Value

$197.98

PnL

-$28.11

Record

68%

31996-15360 (47356)

Both legs:

No$189.7420.1¢-$33.65

Yes$36.3572.5¢+$5.54

RN1CTR

Invested

$288.17

Value

$191.54

PnL

-$96.63

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$139.27

Value

$144.26

PnL

+$4.99

Record

52%

16709-15271 (31980)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.97

Value

$88.71

PnL

+$3.74

Record

53%

12381-11073 (23454)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.89

Value

$40.91

PnL

+$2.02

Record

46%

1581-1835 (3416)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.75

Value

$29.63

PnL

-$0.12

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$43.47

Value

$28.32

PnL

-$15.15

Record

50%

9057-8986 (18043)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$15.37

Value

$15.85

PnL

+$0.48

Record

51%

6950-6596 (13546)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$11.59

PnL

+$0.7

Record

58%

32399-23548 (55947)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$11.15

Value

$9.51

PnL

-$1.64

Record

53%

13688-12137 (25825)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

4982-4149 (9131)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.3

Record

52%

5543-5167 (10710)

RichieRicherCTR<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$2.83

PnL

-$2.24

Record

53%

575-517 (1092)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.