Will Racing Club win on 2026-10-25?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 97¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$416.99

Smart Money Entry

92.1¢ → 96.9¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,527

Combined PnL+$424.61

Yes6 traders

Total Value$229.86

Total Shares2,242

Combined PnL-$7.62

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 91.6¢	$6.6K	$7.0K	+$380.41	68% 31996-15360 (47356)
RN1	Noavg 96¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$9.33	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 91.1¢	$168.47	$175.3	+$6.83	53% 12381-11073 (23454)
HRTrading	Noavg 93.5¢	$101.78	$102.94	+$1.16	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Noavg 87¢	$79.65	$82.4	+$2.75	65% 1561-836 (2397)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$90.33	$82.12	-$8.21	51% 6950-6596 (13546)
CL claudesports<$100	Noavg 58¢	$43.46	$67.44	+$22.1	45% 191-232 (423)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$70.08	$65.52	-$4.56	57% 1510-1118 (2628)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.9¢	$54.18	$61.97	+$7.79	50% 9057-8986 (18043)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 86¢	$49.35	$51.64	+$2.3	52% 16709-15271 (31980)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.2¢	$19.44	$15.06	-$1.54	58% 32399-23548 (55947)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 99¢	$10	$9.73	-$0.27	71% 18115-7363 (25478)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$4	$3.11	-$0.89	46% 1581-1835 (3416)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$2.29	$2.08	-$0.21	53% 13688-12137 (25825)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$6,633.74

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$380.41

Record

68%

31996-15360 (47356)

RN1

Invested

$1,702.13

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$9.33

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$168.47

Value

$175.3

PnL

+$6.83

Record

53%

12381-11073 (23454)

HRTrading

Invested

$101.78

Value

$102.94

PnL

+$1.16

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

darkumbreon88<$100

Invested

$79.65

Value

$82.4

PnL

+$2.75

Record

65%

1561-836 (2397)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.33

Value

$82.12

PnL

-$8.21

Record

51%

6950-6596 (13546)

claudesports<$100

Invested

$43.46

Value

$67.44

PnL

+$22.1

Record

45%

191-232 (423)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.08

Value

$65.52

PnL

-$4.56

Record

57%

1510-1118 (2628)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.18

Value

$61.97

PnL

+$7.79

Record

50%

9057-8986 (18043)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$49.35

Value

$51.64

PnL

+$2.3

Record

52%

16709-15271 (31980)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.44

Value

$15.06

PnL

-$1.54

Record

58%

32399-23548 (55947)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.73

PnL

-$0.27

Record

71%

18115-7363 (25478)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$0.89

Record

46%

1581-1835 (3416)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.29

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

13688-12137 (25825)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.