Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CA River Plate vs. Racing Club: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $165 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 75%
1 arb excluded
$164.95
-$32.94
Research grade
AvoidOver at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Underavg 84¢ | $88.87 | $150.77 | +$61.9 | 50% 7952-8033 (15985) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 21.8¢ | $18.73 | $78.13 | +$59.4 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 84¢ | $70.14 | $72.65 | +$2.5 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 72.8¢ | $6.97 | $8.34 | +$1.36 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
VA Vampiro1CTR<$100 | Overavg 89¢ | $31.14 | $4.55 | -$26.59 | 75% 2437-802 (3239) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR<$100 | Overavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $0.65 | -$3.85 | 94% 14656-857 (15513) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Overavg 91.1¢ | $4.5 | $0.64 | -$3.86 | 71% 18140-7378 (25518) |
Invested
$88.87
Value
$150.77
PnL
+$61.9
Record
50%
7952-8033 (15985)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.97
Value
$8.34
PnL
+$1.36
Record
56%
1868-1468 (3336)
Invested
$31.14
Value
$4.55
PnL
-$26.59
Record
75%
2437-802 (3239)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$3.85
Record
94%
14656-857 (15513)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$0.64
PnL
-$3.86
Record
71%
18140-7378 (25518)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.