Will CA River Plate vs. Racing Club end in a draw?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 87¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$1.8K
-$37.63
80.1¢ → 86.5¢
+8% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 77¢ | $693 | $711 | +$18 | 58% 32399-23548 (55947) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 86¢ | $589.62 | $593.05 | +$3.43 | 57% 1510-1118 (2628) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 19.1¢ | $227.39 | $160.92 | -$66.47 | 68% 31996-15360 (47356) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 77¢ | $154 | $158 | +$4 | 56% 6455-5169 (11624) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $76.23 | $78.21 | +$2.48 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $45.14 | $45.14 | +$0 | 55% 44397-36651 (81048) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $36.41 | $37.39 | +$0.98 | 53% 13688-12137 (25825) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $25.55 | $25.88 | +$0.33 | 53% 12381-11073 (23454) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $6.46 | $6.76 | +$0.3 | 56% 1802-1398 (3200) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $2.4 | $2.1 | -$0.3 | 58% 16269-11892 (28161) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $1.44 | $1.08 | -$0.36 | 46% 1581-1835 (3416) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$693
Value
$711
PnL
+$18
Record
58%
32399-23548 (55947)
oieshfn345Invested
$589.62
Value
$593.05
PnL
+$3.43
Record
57%
1510-1118 (2628)
Invested
$227.39
Value
$160.92
PnL
-$66.47
Record
68%
31996-15360 (47356)
0xheavy888Invested
$154
Value
$158
PnL
+$4
Record
56%
6455-5169 (11624)
Invested
$76.23
Value
$78.21
PnL
+$2.48
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
RN1<$100Invested
$45.14
Value
$45.14
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
44397-36651 (81048)
Invested
$36.41
Value
$37.39
PnL
+$0.98
Record
53%
13688-12137 (25825)
Invested
$25.55
Value
$25.88
PnL
+$0.33
Record
53%
12381-11073 (23454)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.46
Value
$6.76
PnL
+$0.3
Record
56%
1802-1398 (3200)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.3
Record
58%
16269-11892 (28161)
Invested
$1.44
Value
$1.08
PnL
-$0.36
Record
46%
1581-1835 (3416)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.