Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (93%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

CA Independiente vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 7.0¢ · $388 held · ended Oct 25

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$387.62

Combined PnL

-$150.63

Research grade

AvoidOver at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Under 93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$329.37

Total Shares333

Combined PnL+$8.33

Over1 trader

Total Value$58.24

Total Shares563

Combined PnL-$158.96

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 61.4¢	$134.65	$116.03	+$37.9	58% 32272-23432 (55704)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 63¢	$126.93	$114.71	-$12.23	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
FO foooool	Underavg 68.2¢	$103.84	$85.07	-$18.77	51% 6859-6549 (13408)
CA CannaeCTR	Overavg 38¢	$217.2	$58.24	-$158.96	53% 13662-12114 (25776)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 81¢	$12.15	$13.58	+$1.43	50% 8992-8924 (17916)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$134.65

Value

$116.03

PnL

+$37.9

Record

58%

32272-23432 (55704)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$126.93

Value

$114.71

PnL

-$12.23

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

foooool

Under

Invested

$103.84

Value

$85.07

PnL

-$18.77

Record

51%

6859-6549 (13408)

CannaeCTR

Over

Invested

$217.2

Value

$58.24

PnL

-$158.96

Record

53%

13662-12114 (25776)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$12.15

Value

$13.58

PnL

+$1.43

Record

50%

8992-8924 (17916)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Under 93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.4%

7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1095.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

1195.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.