CA Independiente vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 77¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$299.5
51¢ → 76.5¢
+50% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 77%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 53.6¢ | $732.17 | $1.0K | +$285.48 | 68% 31694-15247 (46941) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 64¢ | $120.31 | $120.97 | +$0.66 | 54% 14075-11776 (25851) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 64¢ | $69.76 | $67.58 | -$2.18 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 36¢ | $50.55 | $53.39 | +$2.84 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 33¢ | $228.94 | $78.67 | +$14.74 | 58% 32272-23432 (55704) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 40.8¢ | $23.81 | $41.14 | +$17.32 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 59.4¢ | $61.11 | $39.07 | -$22.04 | 50% 7851-7906 (15757) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 51.1¢ | $29.14 | $35.34 | +$6.2 | 51% 6859-6549 (13408) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $6.21 | $5.36 | -$0.85 | 57% 1726-1316 (3042) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $3.25 | $1.9 | -$1.35 | 49% 11148-11464 (22612) |
Invested
$732.17
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$285.48
Record
68%
31694-15247 (46941)
Invested
$120.31
Value
$120.97
PnL
+$0.66
Record
54%
14075-11776 (25851)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$228.94
Value
$78.67
PnL
+$14.74
Record
58%
32272-23432 (55704)
RN1<$100Invested
$23.81
Value
$41.14
PnL
+$17.32
Record
55%
44235-36462 (80697)
Invested
$61.11
Value
$39.07
PnL
-$22.04
Record
50%
7851-7906 (15757)
Invested
$29.14
Value
$35.34
PnL
+$6.2
Record
51%
6859-6549 (13408)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.21
Value
$5.36
PnL
-$0.85
Record
57%
1726-1316 (3042)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$1.35
Record
49%
11148-11464 (22612)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.