Will CA Independiente win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 84¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$60.81

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 83.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,003

Combined PnL+$60.51

Yes2 traders

Total Value$13

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$0.3

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 80.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$21.5	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
CA Cannae	Noavg 78¢	$949.9	$974.25	+$24.36	53% 13662-12114 (25776)
oieshfn345	Noavg 80¢	$816.64	$827.86	+$11.22	57% 1494-1105 (2599)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 78¢	$70.2	$72	+$1.8	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 79¢	$53.65	$55.28	+$1.63	57% 1726-1316 (3042)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$9.5	$10	+$0.5	53% 12354-11052 (23406)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.3¢	$3.2	$3	-$0.2	55% 4953-4129 (9082)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,521.07

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$21.5

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

Cannae

Invested

$949.9

Value

$974.25

PnL

+$24.36

Record

53%

13662-12114 (25776)

oieshfn345

Invested

$816.64

Value

$827.86

PnL

+$11.22

Record

57%

1494-1105 (2599)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$70.2

Value

$72

PnL

+$1.8

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$53.65

Value

$55.28

PnL

+$1.63

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.5

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

12354-11052 (23406)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

55%

4953-4129 (9082)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.