Will CA Independiente vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 52¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$3.3K
-$353.92
66¢ → 51.5¢
-22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 66.9¢ | $2.0K | $1.6K | -$371.52 | 57% 1494-1105 (2599) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$13.43 | 68% 31694-15247 (46941) |
 RN1 | Noavg 60¢ | $281.79 | $314.67 | +$32.88 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $35 | $33.5 | -$1.5 | 53% 12354-11052 (23406) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $34.02 | $18.97 | +$1.91 | 58% 32272-23432 (55704) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 65.8¢ | $13.15 | $10.9 | -$2.25 | 55% 4953-4129 (9082) |
oieshfn345Invested
$2,002.2
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$371.52
Record
57%
1494-1105 (2599)
Invested
$1,354.23
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$13.43
Record
68%
31694-15247 (46941)
RN1Invested
$281.79
Value
$314.67
PnL
+$32.88
Record
55%
44235-36462 (80697)
Invested
$35
Value
$33.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
53%
12354-11052 (23406)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$34.02
Value
$18.97
PnL
+$1.91
Record
58%
32272-23432 (55704)
Invested
$13.15
Value
$10.9
PnL
-$2.25
Record
55%
4953-4129 (9082)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.