Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-10-25?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 51¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Yes50¢No50¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

-$35.2

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 50.5¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares10,650

Combined PnL-$73.87

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,023

Combined PnL+$38.67

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 53.3¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$80.63	58% 32113-23268 (55381)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 50.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$13.14	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
us391	Noavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$20.63	52% 1368-1284 (2652)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 49.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$8.9	58% 1485-1095 (2580)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.1¢	$748.5	$754.45	+$5.95
└ No leg	Noavg 52.8¢	$346.19	$331.34	-$14.85
DE DelidelaDeleCTR	Yesavg 45¢	$778.93	$813.55	+$43.28	48% 29-31 (60)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$355.8	$359.41	+$3.61	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
latvian.demonCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$250	$242.19	-$7.81	53% 552-481 (1033)
0xheavy888	Noavg 51.1¢	$212.73	$214.33	+$1.6	56% 6406-5129 (11535)
FO foooool	Noavg 52¢	$100	$99.04	-$0.96	51% 6747-6475 (13222)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 52¢	$82.16	$83.74	+$1.58	54% 13985-11704 (25689)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 55¢	$64.38	$62.04	-$2.34	59% 14139-9811 (23950)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 53.4¢	$38.78	$37.36	-$1.41	53% 13639-12083 (25722)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$21.12	$21.02	-$0.1	53% 12339-11044 (23383)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 50¢	$11.21	$11.77	+$0.56	50% 8953-8892 (17845)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$10	$9.69	-$0.31	71% 17969-7285 (25254)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 50¢	$5	$5.25	+$0.25	58% 16221-11850 (28071)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,399.69

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$80.63

Record

58%

32113-23268 (55381)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,540.59

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$13.14

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

us391

Invested

$1,112.71

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20.63

Record

52%

1368-1284 (2652)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,094.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$8.9

Record

58%

1485-1095 (2580)

Both legs:

Yes$748.549.1¢+$5.95

No$346.1952.8¢-$14.85

DelidelaDeleCTR

Yes

Invested

$778.93

Value

$813.55

PnL

+$43.28

Record

48%

29-31 (60)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$355.8

Value

$359.41

PnL

+$3.61

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

latvian.demonCTR

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$242.19

PnL

-$7.81

Record

53%

552-481 (1033)

0xheavy888

Invested

$212.73

Value

$214.33

PnL

+$1.6

Record

56%

6406-5129 (11535)

foooool

Invested

$100

Value

$99.04

PnL

-$0.96

Record

51%

6747-6475 (13222)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$82.16

Value

$83.74

PnL

+$1.58

Record

54%

13985-11704 (25689)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$64.38

Value

$62.04

PnL

-$2.34

Record

59%

14139-9811 (23950)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$38.78

Value

$37.36

PnL

-$1.41

Record

53%

13639-12083 (25722)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.12

Value

$21.02

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

12339-11044 (23383)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$11.21

Value

$11.77

PnL

+$0.56

Record

50%

8953-8892 (17845)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$9.69

PnL

-$0.31

Record

71%

17969-7285 (25254)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

16221-11850 (28071)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.