Instituto AC Córdoba vs. CD Riestra: O/U 2.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 69¢ · $361 held · ended Oct 27

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$361.42

Combined PnL

$5.24

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 68.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$354.18

Total Shares520

Combined PnL+$5.59

Over1 trader

Total Value$7.25

Total Shares23

Combined PnL-$0.34

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 67¢	$227.13	$232.22	+$5.09	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 66¢	$66	$68.5	+$0.5	56% 6752-5410 (12162)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 66¢	$53.46	$53.46	+$0	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$7.59	$7.25	-$0.34	50% 23534-23109 (46643)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$227.13

Value

$232.22

PnL

+$5.09

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$66

Value

$68.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

56%

6752-5410 (12162)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$53.46

Value

$53.46

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.59

Value

$7.25

PnL

-$0.34

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.