Instituto AC Córdoba vs. CD Riestra: O/U 1.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$134.09

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 74.5¢

+39% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,005

Combined PnL+$148.36

Over3 traders

Total Value$472.38

Total Shares1,402

Combined PnL-$14.27

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 62.4¢	$916.09	$976.49	+$60.4	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 34.7¢	$415.03	$400.7	-$14.33	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 39¢	$370.47	$394.22	+$23.75	50% 1084-1075 (2159)
RN1	Underavg 56.9¢	$226.07	$292.11	+$66.03	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 45¢	$61.36	$60.68	-$0.68	50% 31780-31415 (63195)
LA LaarsYCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$57.77	$56.92	-$0.85	50% 3351-3286 (6637)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 62¢	$31	$29.75	-$1.25	48% 4379-4828 (9207)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$13.85	$14.76	+$0.91	50% 10210-10096 (20306)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 38¢	$1.19	$1.3	+$0.11	58% 39668-28654 (68322)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$916.09

Value

$976.49

PnL

+$60.4

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$415.03

Value

$400.7

PnL

-$14.33

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$370.47

Value

$394.22

PnL

+$23.75

Record

50%

1084-1075 (2159)

RN1

Under

Invested

$226.07

Value

$292.11

PnL

+$66.03

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$61.36

Value

$60.68

PnL

-$0.68

Record

50%

31780-31415 (63195)

LaarsYCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.77

Value

$56.92

PnL

-$0.85

Record

50%

3351-3286 (6637)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$31

Value

$29.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

48%

4379-4828 (9207)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.85

Value

$14.76

PnL

+$0.91

Record

50%

10210-10096 (20306)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.