Spread: Instituto AC Córdoba (-1.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold CD Riestra (80%) · CD Riestra at 75¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27

Instituto AC Córdoba25¢CD Riestra75¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CD Riestra

Consensus Traders

CD Riestra 80%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 75¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCD Riestra at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CD Riestra

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Instituto AC Córdoba25%

CD Riestra75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CD Riestra4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,420

Combined PnL+$0

Instituto AC Córdoba1 trader

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares4,180

Combined PnL+$0

CD Riestra — 80%Instituto AC Córdoba — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	CD Riestraavg 75¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$0	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Instituto AC Córdobaavg 25¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
CA Cannae	CD Riestraavg 75¢	$163.88	$163.88	+$0	53% 15512-13700 (29212)
0xheavy888	CD Riestraavg 75¢	$150	$150	+$0	56% 6752-5410 (12162)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	CD Riestraavg 75¢	$42	$42	+$0	57% 27008-20057 (47065)

UpTheBlues

CD Riestra

Invested

$2,209.41

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Instituto AC Córdoba

Invested

$1,045.02

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

Cannae

CD Riestra

Invested

$163.88

Value

$163.88

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15512-13700 (29212)

0xheavy888

CD Riestra

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

6752-5410 (12162)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

CD Riestra

Invested

$42

Value

$42

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Research grade

NeutralCD Riestra at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

CD Riestra

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CD Riestra wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.