Will CD Riestra win on 2026-10-26?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Yes12¢No88¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$44.91

Smart Money Entry

86¢ → 88.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,319

Combined PnL+$51.75

Yes6 traders

Total Value$204.51

Total Shares1,486

Combined PnL-$6.84

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 86.1¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$52.75	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
oieshfn345	Noavg 85.8¢	$585.4	$584.36	-$1.04	58% 1578-1158 (2736)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$82.28	$74.52	-$7.76	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.9¢	$51.79	$48	+$0.25	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$46.32	$47.86	+$1.54	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$24.99	$25.82	+$0.83	50% 10210-10096 (20306)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$9.27	$7.53	-$1.74	53% 15512-13700 (29212)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 82¢	$3.69	$3.62	+$0.07	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 89¢	$3.03	$3.01	-$0.02	52% 13421-12256 (25677)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 84¢	$1.75	$1.75	+$0	67% 22791-11234 (34025)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.75	$0.78	+$0.03	54% 5939-5026 (10965)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,368.9

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$52.75

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

oieshfn345

Invested

$585.4

Value

$584.36

PnL

-$1.04

Record

58%

1578-1158 (2736)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.28

Value

$74.52

PnL

-$7.76

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.79

Value

$48

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.32

Value

$47.86

PnL

+$1.54

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.99

Value

$25.82

PnL

+$0.83

Record

50%

10210-10096 (20306)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.27

Value

$7.53

PnL

-$1.74

Record

53%

15512-13700 (29212)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$3.69

Value

$3.62

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$3.03

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

13421-12256 (25677)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

22791-11234 (34025)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.78

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

5939-5026 (10965)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.