Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2026-10-26?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 47¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27

Yes54¢No46¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$19.11

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 46.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,067

Combined PnL+$16.08

Yes2 traders

Total Value$179.74

Total Shares339

Combined PnL+$3.03

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 46¢	$860.56	$819.05	+$11.59	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 53.8¢	$190.18	$189.62	-$0.56	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.8¢	$126.24	$124.29	-$1.95
└ No leg	Noavg 46¢	$63.94	$65.33	+$1.39
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 52.1¢	$174.9	$177.92	+$3.02	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 46¢	$159.18	$160.91	+$1.73	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$66.26	$67.68	+$1.42	53% 15512-13700 (29212)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$54.74	$55.93	+$1.19	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$7.13	$7.28	+$0.15	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
KY Kyn008<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$3.4	$1.82	+$0.02	50% 212-209 (421)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$860.56

Value

$819.05

PnL

+$11.59

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$190.18

Value

$189.62

PnL

-$0.56

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

Both legs:

Yes$126.2453.8¢-$1.95

No$63.9446¢+$1.39

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$174.9

Value

$177.92

PnL

+$3.02

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$159.18

Value

$160.91

PnL

+$1.73

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$66.26

Value

$67.68

PnL

+$1.42

Record

53%

15512-13700 (29212)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$54.74

Value

$55.93

PnL

+$1.19

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$7.13

Value

$7.28

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Kyn008<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$1.82

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

212-209 (421)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.