Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 53¢ · $609 held · ends Oct 26

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$608.75

Combined PnL

$17.09

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 52.5¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$601.86

Total Shares1,204

Combined PnL+$19.23

No2 traders

Total Value$6.89

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$2.14

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 49.4¢	$298.28	$302.17	+$3.89	59% 13747-9558 (23305)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 47.3¢	$235.87	$249.19	+$13.32	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$48.48	$50.5	+$2.02	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 52.2¢	$151.47	$5.89	-$2.1	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$1.04	$1.01	-$0.04	58% 1363-997 (2360)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$298.28

Value

$302.17

PnL

+$3.89

Record

59%

13747-9558 (23305)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$235.87

Value

$249.19

PnL

+$13.32

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.48

Value

$50.5

PnL

+$2.02

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$151.47

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$2.1

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.