CA Central Córdoba vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 5.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 77¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$480.99
91.3¢ → 76.8¢
-16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 77%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 91.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.5K | -$352.23 | 69% 34652-15570 (50222) |
 RN1 | Underavg 91.6¢ | $733.68 | $659.58 | -$74.1 | 55% 47028-39201 (86229) |
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Underavg 90.1¢ | $193.35 | $364.04 | +$170.69 | 50% 8091-8124 (16215) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 7.4¢ | $58.26 | $264.14 | +$205.88 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 90.1¢ | $135.09 | $99.9 | -$35.19 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 9.1¢ | $138.82 | $86.81 | -$52.01 | 51% 19173-18552 (37725) |
C4 0xc4fe...601f<$100 | Underavg 88.2¢ | $9.59 | $10.25 | +$0.66 | — |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 66.6¢ | $1.34 | $1.34 | +$0 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $3.9 | $0.58 | -$3.32 | 58% 6537-4795 (11332) |
Invested
$1,830.71
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$352.23
Record
69%
34652-15570 (50222)
RN1Invested
$733.68
Value
$659.58
PnL
-$74.1
Record
55%
47028-39201 (86229)
Invested
$193.35
Value
$364.04
PnL
+$170.69
Record
50%
8091-8124 (16215)
Both legs:
Invested
$138.82
Value
$86.81
PnL
-$52.01
Record
51%
19173-18552 (37725)
Invested
$9.59
Value
$10.25
PnL
+$0.66
Record
—
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.34
Value
$1.34
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$0.58
PnL
-$3.32
Record
58%
6537-4795 (11332)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.