CA Central Córdoba vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 2.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$48.15

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 53.5¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$745.21

Total Shares1,335

Combined PnL-$7.4

Over4 traders

Total Value$545.31

Total Shares1,355

Combined PnL-$40.76

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 57.2¢	$514.73	$499.47	-$15.26	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 42.2¢	$325.8	$304.8	-$21.01	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
KC Kch-TempCTR	Overavg 44¢	$194.04	$174.2	-$19.84	51% 193-183 (376)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 53¢	$114.37	$115.45	+$1.08	50% 1017-1009 (2026)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 56.7¢	$58	$61.88	+$3.88	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$48.7	$48.18	-$0.52	69% 395-174 (569)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 57¢	$41.9	$44.47	+$2.57	52% 16365-14925 (31290)
CA Cannae<$100	Underavg 54.7¢	$23.6	$23.93	+$0.32	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 44.9¢	$17.52	$18.14	+$0.62	67% 31285-15084 (46369)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$514.73

Value

$499.47

PnL

-$15.26

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$325.8

Value

$304.8

PnL

-$21.01

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

Kch-TempCTR

Over

Invested

$194.04

Value

$174.2

PnL

-$19.84

Record

51%

193-183 (376)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$114.37

Value

$115.45

PnL

+$1.08

Record

50%

1017-1009 (2026)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$58

Value

$61.88

PnL

+$3.88

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

manoamanoCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.7

Value

$48.18

PnL

-$0.52

Record

69%

395-174 (569)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$41.9

Value

$44.47

PnL

+$2.57

Record

52%

16365-14925 (31290)

Cannae<$100

Under

Invested

$23.6

Value

$23.93

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.52

Value

$18.14

PnL

+$0.62

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.