CA Central Córdoba vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 1.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 100¢ · $942 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 78%
$942.33
-$145.35
88.9¢ → 100¢
+12% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 87.9¢ | $404.43 | $315.86 | -$88.57 | 51% 18652-17998 (36650) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 28¢ | $232.63 | $274.17 | +$41.54 | 50% 9163-9084 (18247) |
AR ARocky33 | Overavg 95.1¢ | $281.96 | $198.68 | -$83.28 | 76% 3441-1104 (4545) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 73¢ | $72.5 | $69.78 | -$2.72 | 68% 33658-15496 (49154) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $35.34 | $37.62 | +$2.28 | 55% 15069-12329 (27398) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 98¢ | $37.23 | $25.45 | -$11.78 | 75% 2509-822 (3331) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $7.59 | $7.37 | -$0.22 | 56% 1895-1497 (3392) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 71¢ | $7.1 | $6.7 | -$0.4 | 55% 46138-38317 (84455) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 89¢ | $8.9 | $6.7 | -$2.2 | 50% 8027-8078 (16105) |
Invested
$404.43
Value
$315.86
PnL
-$88.57
Record
51%
18652-17998 (36650)
Invested
$232.63
Value
$274.17
PnL
+$41.54
Record
50%
9163-9084 (18247)
Invested
$281.96
Value
$198.68
PnL
-$83.28
Record
76%
3441-1104 (4545)
Invested
$72.5
Value
$69.78
PnL
-$2.72
Record
68%
33658-15496 (49154)
Invested
$35.34
Value
$37.62
PnL
+$2.28
Record
55%
15069-12329 (27398)
Invested
$37.23
Value
$25.45
PnL
-$11.78
Record
75%
2509-822 (3331)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.59
Value
$7.37
PnL
-$0.22
Record
56%
1895-1497 (3392)
RN1<$100Invested
$7.1
Value
$6.7
PnL
-$0.4
Record
55%
46138-38317 (84455)
Invested
$8.9
Value
$6.7
PnL
-$2.2
Record
50%
8027-8078 (16105)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.