Will CA Central Córdoba vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $610 held · ended Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$609.65

Combined PnL

$22.74

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$566.39

Total Shares603

Combined PnL+$20.03

Yes2 traders

Total Value$43.26

Total Shares541

Combined PnL+$2.7

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 73.5¢	$201.51	$252.31	+$50.8	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 73¢	$147.27	$147.08	-$28.86	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
oieshfn345<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$99.27	$98.93	-$0.33	57% 1525-1128 (2653)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 92¢	$44.15	$44.15	+$0.24	53% 12452-11161 (23613)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$25.58	$27.29	+$1.71	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 99¢	$25.74	$23.92	-$1.82	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$14.97	$15.97	+$1	53% 14291-12537 (26828)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$201.51

Value

$252.31

PnL

+$50.8

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$147.27

Value

$147.08

PnL

-$28.86

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

oieshfn345<$100

Invested

$99.27

Value

$98.93

PnL

-$0.33

Record

57%

1525-1128 (2653)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$44.15

Value

$44.15

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

12452-11161 (23613)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.58

Value

$27.29

PnL

+$1.71

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$25.74

Value

$23.92

PnL

-$1.82

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.97

Value

$15.97

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

14291-12537 (26828)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.