Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$10.44

Smart Money Entry

90.8¢ → 98.9¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,341

Combined PnL-$16.24

Yes5 traders

Total Value$47.3

Total Shares1,321

Combined PnL+$5.8

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 94.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$61.87	55% 46138-38317 (84455)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 89.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$43.25	68% 33658-15496 (49154)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 87.1¢	$843.78	$730.29	-$113.49	51% 18652-17998 (36650)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 92¢	$56.37	$48.5	-$7.87	53% 12413-11120 (23533)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$23.53	$14.57	-$8.96	50% 9163-9084 (18247)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$10.45	$13.86	+$3.41	57% 1520-1125 (2645)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$4	$12.2	+$8.2	51% 7331-6939 (14270)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$2.36	$5.14	+$2.78	46% 1596-1860 (3456)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.53	+$0.38	55% 5394-4503 (9897)

RN1

Invested

$1,274.43

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$61.87

Record

55%

46138-38317 (84455)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,186.21

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$43.25

Record

68%

33658-15496 (49154)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$843.78

Value

$730.29

PnL

-$113.49

Record

51%

18652-17998 (36650)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$56.37

Value

$48.5

PnL

-$7.87

Record

53%

12413-11120 (23533)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.53

Value

$14.57

PnL

-$8.96

Record

50%

9163-9084 (18247)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.45

Value

$13.86

PnL

+$3.41

Record

57%

1520-1125 (2645)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$12.2

PnL

+$8.2

Record

51%

7331-6939 (14270)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.36

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$2.78

Record

46%

1596-1860 (3456)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.38

Record

55%

5394-4503 (9897)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.