Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CA Central Córdoba vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: Both Teams to Score
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 9.5¢ · $336 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$336.3
$46.27
42.9¢ → 9.5¢
-78% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 47.1¢ | $124.19 | $166.01 | +$41.81 | 52% 7497-7034 (14531) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.8¢ | $25.63 | $54.18 | +$28.55 | 50% 8091-8124 (16215) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $54.94 | $50.92 | -$4.02 | 56% 21078-16865 (37943) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $15.66 | $24.44 | +$8.78 | 69% 34652-15570 (50222) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $25.49 | $19.65 | -$5.84 | 58% 34591-25199 (59790) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Noavg 66.8¢ | $36.75 | $17.33 | -$19.43 | 72% 1300-499 (1799) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $7.38 | $3.79 | -$3.59 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
Invested
$124.19
Value
$166.01
PnL
+$41.81
Record
52%
7497-7034 (14531)
Invested
$25.63
Value
$54.18
PnL
+$28.55
Record
50%
8091-8124 (16215)
Invested
$54.94
Value
$50.92
PnL
-$4.02
Record
56%
21078-16865 (37943)
Invested
$15.66
Value
$24.44
PnL
+$8.78
Record
69%
34652-15570 (50222)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$25.49
Value
$19.65
PnL
-$5.84
Record
58%
34591-25199 (59790)
Invested
$36.75
Value
$17.33
PnL
-$19.43
Record
72%
1300-499 (1799)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.38
Value
$3.79
PnL
-$3.59
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.