CA Barracas Central vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 2.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 64¢ · $557 held · ended Oct 26

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$557.25

Combined PnL

$8.96

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 64¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$301.78

Total Shares920

Combined PnL+$13.38

Under4 traders

Total Value$255.47

Total Shares384

Combined PnL-$4.42

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 32¢	$235.29	$246.32	+$11.03	50% 9163-9084 (18247)
0xheavy888	Underavg 67¢	$134	$133	-$1	56% 6515-5214 (11729)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 67¢	$104.62	$103.84	-$0.78	51% 18652-17998 (36650)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$53.1	$55.45	+$2.35	51% 7331-6939 (14270)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 77¢	$19.25	$16.63	-$2.63	68% 33658-15496 (49154)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 67¢	$2.03	$2.02	-$0.02	58% 33858-24647 (58505)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$235.29

Value

$246.32

PnL

+$11.03

Record

50%

9163-9084 (18247)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$134

Value

$133

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

6515-5214 (11729)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$104.62

Value

$103.84

PnL

-$0.78

Record

51%

18652-17998 (36650)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.1

Value

$55.45

PnL

+$2.35

Record

51%

7331-6939 (14270)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$19.25

Value

$16.63

PnL

-$2.63

Record

68%

33658-15496 (49154)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$2.03

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

33858-24647 (58505)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.