CA Barracas Central vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 0.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$2.1K
$166.6
89.3¢ → 100¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609 | Overavg 95.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$40.54 | 81% 2025-467 (2492) |
 RN1 | Overavg 79¢ | $600.4 | $759.62 | +$159.22 | 55% 47028-39201 (86229) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 87¢ | $22.62 | $24.96 | +$0 | 55% 6546-5254 (11800) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $36 | $3 | -$33 | 58% 34591-25199 (59790) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $0.17 | $0.01 | -$0.16 | 52% 7497-7034 (14531) |
Invested
$1,231.51
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$40.54
Record
81%
2025-467 (2492)
RN1Invested
$600.4
Value
$759.62
PnL
+$159.22
Record
55%
47028-39201 (86229)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$22.62
Value
$24.96
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
6546-5254 (11800)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$36
Value
$3
PnL
-$33
Record
58%
34591-25199 (59790)
Invested
$0.17
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.16
Record
52%
7497-7034 (14531)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.