Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (84%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CA Barracas Central vs. AA Estudiantes: 1st Half O/U 0.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 16¢ · $49 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
3
Over 100%
$49.29
-$137.52
93.6¢ → 16¢
-83% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR | Overavg 99¢ | $176.9 | $28.59 | -$148.31 | 94% 15257-909 (16166) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $5.41 | $15.75 | +$10.34 | 50% 8091-8124 (16215) |
VA Vampiro1CTR<$100 | Overavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $4.95 | +$0.45 | 75% 2536-830 (3366) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.