Will CA Barracas Central vs. AA Estudiantes end in a draw?

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 96¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$940.67

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 95.5¢

+37% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,774

Combined PnL-$303.2

Yes6 traders

Total Value$226.34

Total Shares3,710

Combined PnL-$637.47

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 65¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$322.74	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 66.1¢	$714.27	$1.0K	+$285.88	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 95¢	$776.49	$464.03	-$312.47	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 79.6¢	$270.23	$324.21	+$53.98	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 23.2¢	$837.7	$198.8	-$638.9	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
0xheavy888	Noavg 73¢	$146	$136	-$3	55% 6546-5254 (11800)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 65.9¢	$136.45	$135.9	-$0.56	53% 12452-11161 (23613)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 67¢	$60.57	$59.83	-$0.73	52% 7497-7034 (14531)
└ No leg	Noavg 67¢	$35.58	$35.58	-$0
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34¢	$24.99	$24.26	-$0.73
ZaiZoiBele<$100	Noavg 68¢	$40.74	$40.14	-$0.6	81% 4350-1029 (5379)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 72¢	$32.97	$31.13	-$0.23	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 73¢	$21.9	$20.4	-$0.45	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$10.88	$11.4	+$0.52	46% 1616-1883 (3499)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.7¢	$8.75	$9.65	+$0.9	58% 16669-12256 (28925)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 71¢	$12.25	$9.23	-$3.02	76% 3460-1113 (4573)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$3.87	$3.82	-$0.05	55% 3160-2554 (5714)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.6¢	$2.36	$2.39	+$0.03	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.25	$0.28	+$0.03	55% 5431-4532 (9963)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,613.69

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$322.74

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$714.27

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$285.88

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$776.49

Value

$464.03

PnL

-$312.47

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$270.23

Value

$324.21

PnL

+$53.98

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$837.7

Value

$198.8

PnL

-$638.9

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

0xheavy888

Invested

$146

Value

$136

PnL

-$3

Record

55%

6546-5254 (11800)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$136.45

Value

$135.9

PnL

-$0.56

Record

53%

12452-11161 (23613)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$60.57

Value

$59.83

PnL

-$0.73

Record

52%

7497-7034 (14531)

Both legs:

No$35.5867¢-$0

Yes$24.9934¢-$0.73

ZaiZoiBele<$100

Invested

$40.74

Value

$40.14

PnL

-$0.6

Record

81%

4350-1029 (5379)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$32.97

Value

$31.13

PnL

-$0.23

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$21.9

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$0.45

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.88

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$0.52

Record

46%

1616-1883 (3499)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.75

Value

$9.65

PnL

+$0.9

Record

58%

16669-12256 (28925)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$12.25

Value

$9.23

PnL

-$3.02

Record

76%

3460-1113 (4573)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.87

Value

$3.82

PnL

-$0.05

Record

55%

3160-2554 (5714)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.36

Value

$2.39

PnL

+$0.03

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

5431-4532 (9963)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.