Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CA Barracas Central vs. AA Estudiantes: Both Teams to Score
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 36¢ · $205 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$205.2
$8.4
34¢ → 36¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $125.5 | $132.84 | +$7.34 | 50% 8992-8924 (17916) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $39.44 | $41.76 | +$0.58 | 54% 14075-11776 (25851) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $30.12 | $30.6 | +$0.48 | 58% 32272-23432 (55704) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.