Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$3.2K
-$1.78
40.9¢ → 44.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 45%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | Noavg 41¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$72.52 | 54% 1345-1153 (2498) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 61.6¢ | $613.19 | $550.86 | -$60.78 | 58% 32399-23548 (55947) |
CA Cannae | Yesavg 59¢ | $265.93 | $256.92 | -$9.01 | 53% 13688-12137 (25825) |
KY Kyn008CTR | Noavg 40¢ | $214.92 | $220.29 | +$2.69 | 51% 204-198 (402) |
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 59¢ | $118 | $114 | -$4 | 56% 6455-5169 (11624) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $53.69 | $51.87 | -$3.19 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
Invested
$1,981.97
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$72.52
Record
54%
1345-1153 (2498)
VeryLucky888Invested
$613.19
Value
$550.86
PnL
-$60.78
Record
58%
32399-23548 (55947)
Invested
$265.93
Value
$256.92
PnL
-$9.01
Record
53%
13688-12137 (25825)
Invested
$214.92
Value
$220.29
PnL
+$2.69
Record
51%
204-198 (402)
0xheavy888Invested
$118
Value
$114
PnL
-$4
Record
56%
6455-5169 (11624)
Invested
$53.69
Value
$51.87
PnL
-$3.19
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.