Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-10-25?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 45¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
10
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$36.37
26.7¢ → 44.5¢
+67% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 45¢ | $332.45 | $334.23 | +$1.77 | 55% 46138-38317 (84455) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $291.57 | $274.28 | -$17.29 | 68% 33658-15496 (49154) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 87¢ | $257.38 | $161.32 | -$96.06 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 13.8¢ | $34.19 | $112.96 | +$78.77 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 84¢ | $168.31 | $168.31 | -$0 | 58% 33858-24647 (58505) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 14¢ | $157.7 | $146.41 | -$11.3 | 51% 18652-17998 (36650) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $68.75 | $68.13 | -$0.63 | 50% 15913-16145 (32058) |
RO Rocko33CTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $38.94 | $9.73 | -$29.2 | 64% 892-496 (1388) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.7¢ | $3.4 | $6.08 | +$2.68 | 55% 5394-4503 (9897) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $5.64 | $5.71 | +$0.07 | 56% 6515-5214 (11729) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | -$0 | 71% 18315-7461 (25776) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $2.81 | $2.81 | +$0 | 53% 14053-12385 (26438) |
KY Kyn008CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $1.27 | $1.56 | +$0.24 | 50% 206-203 (409) |
RN1CTRInvested
$332.45
Value
$334.23
PnL
+$1.77
Record
55%
46138-38317 (84455)
Invested
$291.57
Value
$274.28
PnL
-$17.29
Record
68%
33658-15496 (49154)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$168.31
Value
$168.31
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
33858-24647 (58505)
Invested
$157.7
Value
$146.41
PnL
-$11.3
Record
51%
18652-17998 (36650)
Invested
$68.75
Value
$68.13
PnL
-$0.63
Record
50%
15913-16145 (32058)
Invested
$38.94
Value
$9.73
PnL
-$29.2
Record
64%
892-496 (1388)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$6.08
PnL
+$2.68
Record
55%
5394-4503 (9897)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$5.64
Value
$5.71
PnL
+$0.07
Record
56%
6515-5214 (11729)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$0
Record
71%
18315-7461 (25776)
Invested
$2.81
Value
$2.81
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
14053-12385 (26438)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$1.56
PnL
+$0.24
Record
50%
206-203 (409)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.