Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CA Aldosivi vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 2.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 42¢ · $747 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 100%
$747.23
-$7.69
42.1¢ → 41.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 42¢ | $296.52 | $292.99 | -$3.53 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 42¢ | $191.31 | $191.31 | -$2.28 | 50% 7758-7812 (15570) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 42¢ | $126 | $126 | +$0 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Overavg 42.4¢ | $88.49 | $87.72 | -$0.78 | 53% 13577-12018 (25595) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $45.15 | $44.1 | -$1.05 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $5.12 | $5.12 | -$0.06 | 49% 10988-11346 (22334) |
Invested
$296.52
Value
$292.99
PnL
-$3.53
Record
68%
31119-14954 (46073)
Invested
$191.31
Value
$191.31
PnL
-$2.28
Record
50%
7758-7812 (15570)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$126
Value
$126
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$88.49
Value
$87.72
PnL
-$0.78
Record
53%
13577-12018 (25595)
Invested
$45.15
Value
$44.1
PnL
-$1.05
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Invested
$5.12
Value
$5.12
PnL
-$0.06
Record
49%
10988-11346 (22334)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.