Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (82%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CA Aldosivi vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 19¢ · $194 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$194.12
-$80.14
31.6¢ → 18.5¢
-42% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 82%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 36.7¢ | $76.14 | $81.86 | +$5.72 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 29.4¢ | $145.62 | $61.89 | -$83.73 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $32 | $29.2 | -$2.8 | 63% 22715-13447 (36162) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $10.35 | $11.56 | +$1.21 | 50% 7794-7854 (15648) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $5.27 | $5.19 | -$0.08 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $4.87 | $4.41 | -$0.46 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$76.14
Value
$81.86
PnL
+$5.72
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$145.62
Value
$61.89
PnL
-$83.73
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$32
Value
$29.2
PnL
-$2.8
Record
63%
22715-13447 (36162)
Invested
$10.35
Value
$11.56
PnL
+$1.21
Record
50%
7794-7854 (15648)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.27
Value
$5.19
PnL
-$0.08
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
Invested
$4.87
Value
$4.41
PnL
-$0.46
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.