Will CA Aldosivi vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $351 held · ended Oct 25

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$350.82

Combined PnL

-$0.88

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 70.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$194.31

Total Shares249

Combined PnL+$1.58

Yes4 traders

Total Value$156.51

Total Shares528

Combined PnL-$2.46

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 70.6¢	$138.09	$139.63	+$1.74	58% 1478-1088 (2566)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.4¢	$81.72	$82.01	+$0.29	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.7¢	$74.9	$72.07	-$2.83	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 69.3¢	$44.24	$44.01	-$0.24	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$7.05	$7.15	+$0.1	55% 4880-4051 (8931)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.53	-$0.02	46% 1535-1785 (3320)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.4	+$0.1	58% 16182-11818 (28000)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.05	$1.03	-$0.02	57% 1578-1171 (2749)

oieshfn345

Invested

$138.09

Value

$139.63

PnL

+$1.74

Record

58%

1478-1088 (2566)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.72

Value

$82.01

PnL

+$0.29

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.9

Value

$72.07

PnL

-$2.83

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$44.24

Value

$44.01

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

123987456<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.53

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

1535-1785 (3320)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

16182-11818 (28000)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.