Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-10-25?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 86¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 25

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 85.5¢

+71% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares7,915

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$117.64

Total Shares260

Combined PnL-$4.46

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$9.0K	$6.4K	$-2.6K	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46¢	$7.0K	$3.3K	$-3.7K
└ No leg	Noavg 49.7¢	$2.0K	$3.1K	+$1.1K
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 48.9¢	$3.1K	$4.8K	+$1.8K	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
oieshfn345	Noavg 51.4¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$151.36	58% 1478-1088 (2566)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$1.1K	$576.48	-$524.7	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46¢	$993.6	$421.2	-$572.4
└ No leg	Noavg 55.8¢	$107.58	$155.28	+$47.7
VeryLucky888	Noavg 51.1¢	$321.49	$189.18	+$8.68	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 55.6¢	$92.67	$107.56	+$14.89	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 69.9¢	$82.05	$96.87	+$14.83	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$100.24	$95.02	-$5.22	50% 1017-1009 (2026)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$81.75	$89.93	+$8.18	55% 4880-4051 (8931)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$21.86	$22.62	+$0.76	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 64¢	$6.4	$7.65	+$1.25	58% 16182-11818 (28000)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 52¢	$5.27	$7.57	+$2.3	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 51¢	$3.37	$3.6	+$0.23	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.73	+$0.38	46% 1535-1785 (3320)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$8,983.9

Value

$6.4K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Both legs:

Yes$7,031.1646¢$-3.7K

No$1,952.7449.7¢+$1.1K

UpTheBlues

Invested

$3,074.22

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,314.93

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$151.36

Record

58%

1478-1088 (2566)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,101.18

Value

$576.48

PnL

-$524.7

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

Both legs:

Yes$993.646¢-$572.4

No$107.5855.8¢+$47.7

VeryLucky888

Invested

$321.49

Value

$189.18

PnL

+$8.68

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$92.67

Value

$107.56

PnL

+$14.89

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

foooool<$100

Invested

$82.05

Value

$96.87

PnL

+$14.83

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.24

Value

$95.02

PnL

-$5.22

Record

50%

1017-1009 (2026)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$81.75

Value

$89.93

PnL

+$8.18

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.86

Value

$22.62

PnL

+$0.76

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$1.25

Record

58%

16182-11818 (28000)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$5.27

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$2.3

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$3.37

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.23

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

123987456<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.38

Record

46%

1535-1785 (3320)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.