Will CA Aldosivi win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 57¢ · $26K held · ended Oct 25

Yes57¢No43¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.1K

Combined PnL

-$332.79

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 57.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares31,138

Combined PnL-$511.41

No5 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares14,818

Combined PnL+$178.62

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmst	Yesavg 54.6¢	$17.0K	$16.5K	-$511.71	47% 85-94 (179)
RN1CTR	Noavg 45.8¢	$6.7K	$6.8K	+$177.3	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 46¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$111.21	58% 1478-1088 (2566)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.6¢	$883.9	$1.0K	+$164.43
└ No leg	Noavg 46¢	$979.58	$926.35	-$53.23
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$601.29	$609.44	+$8.15	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48¢	$368.88	$365.04	-$3.84
└ No leg	Noavg 49.9¢	$232.41	$244.4	+$11.99
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$74.75	$76.38	+$1.63	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$38.14	$36.24	-$1.9	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$6	$7.43	+$1.42	55% 4880-4051 (8931)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$5.58	$5.57	-$0.01	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$3.3	$5	+$1.7	58% 16182-11818 (28000)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.9	$3.8	-$0.1	46% 1535-1785 (3320)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$2.55	$1.33	-$1.22	63% 22715-13447 (36162)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$0.85	$0.95	+$0.1	50% 8893-8828 (17721)

robustmst

Yes

Invested

$17,000

Value

$16.5K

PnL

-$511.71

Record

47%

85-94 (179)

RN1CTR

Invested

$6,672.5

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$177.3

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$1,863.48

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$111.21

Record

58%

1478-1088 (2566)

Both legs:

Yes$883.947.6¢+$164.43

No$979.5846¢-$53.23

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$601.29

Value

$609.44

PnL

+$8.15

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Both legs:

Yes$368.8848¢-$3.84

No$232.4149.9¢+$11.99

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$74.75

Value

$76.38

PnL

+$1.63

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Invested

$38.14

Value

$36.24

PnL

-$1.9

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$7.43

PnL

+$1.42

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.58

Value

$5.57

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

PnL

+$1.7

Record

58%

16182-11818 (28000)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

46%

1535-1785 (3320)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$1.22

Record

63%

22715-13447 (36162)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.