Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$278.32

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 94.9¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,035

Combined PnL+$330.35

Yes2 traders

Total Value$46.29

Total Shares1,653

Combined PnL-$52.04

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

4715h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO LongAndWindingRoad	Noavg 82.2¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$275.48	61% 66-42 (108)
TT tttt123	Noavg 81.2¢	$162.37	$193.19	+$32.52	72% 1526-583 (2109)
AJ AJSVCTR	Yesavg 15.9¢	$294.41	$39.51	-$34.84	36% 13223-23096 (36319)
Gohst<$100	Noavg 36¢	$13.17	$35.34	+$22.35	49% 722-756 (1478)
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.6¢	$23.98	$6.78	-$17.2	52% 2052-1928 (3980)

LongAndWindingRoad

Invested

$1,462.23

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$275.48

Record

61%

66-42 (108)

tttt123

Invested

$162.37

Value

$193.19

PnL

+$32.52

Record

72%

1526-583 (2109)

AJSVCTR

Yes

Invested

$294.41

Value

$39.51

PnL

-$34.84

Record

36%

13223-23096 (36319)

Gohst<$100

Invested

$13.17

Value

$35.34

PnL

+$22.35

Record

49%

722-756 (1478)

0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.98

Value

$6.78

PnL

-$17.2

Record

52%

2052-1928 (3980)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

4715h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.1%

94.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.