Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$2.7K
$43.92
91.9¢ → 93.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 92¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | +$34.3 | 66% 1090-559 (1649) |
 yen4u | Noavg 91¢ | $349.45 | $357.13 | +$9.6 | 83% 585-119 (704) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 93¢ | $190.65 | $190.65 | +$0 | 60% 966-638 (1604) |
 tetrase | Noavg 92.8¢ | $45.1K | $5.66 | +$0.01 | 60% 780-529 (1309) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.