Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.7K
$55.35
60.8¢ → 74.5¢
+23% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
1633h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StarMaster | Noavg 60.5¢ | $606.47 | $765 | +$158.53 | 53% 1770-1562 (3332) |
 Porx | Noavg 58.9¢ | $377.28 | $418.24 | +$40.95 | 66% 1429-741 (2170) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 37.2¢ | $450.03 | $264.7 | -$131.12 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $143.14 | $131.4 | -$21.81 | 39% 147-230 (377) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 69¢ | $110.4 | $122.4 | +$8.8 | 89% 4122-528 (4650) |
StarMasterInvested
$606.47
Value
$765
PnL
+$158.53
Record
53%
1770-1562 (3332)
PorxInvested
$377.28
Value
$418.24
PnL
+$40.95
Record
66%
1429-741 (2170)
Invested
$450.03
Value
$264.7
PnL
-$131.12
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
crypto-basenjiCTRInvested
$143.14
Value
$131.4
PnL
-$21.81
Record
39%
147-230 (377)
Invested
$110.4
Value
$122.4
PnL
+$8.8
Record
89%
4122-528 (4650)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.