Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 53¢ · $984 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$983.75
$407.48
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
73h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $194.09 | $639.31 | +$445.22 | 52% 988-911 (1899) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Noavg 55.3¢ | $427.81 | $128.63 | -$36.25 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
 Parz1vaICTR | Noavg 44.9¢ | $97.7 | $107.93 | +$10.22 | 72% 3438-1319 (4757) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR | Noavg 52¢ | $104 | $95 | -$9 | 57% 14700-11057 (25757) |
 GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $15.85 | $12.88 | -$2.72 | 50% 501-498 (999) |
Invested
$194.09
Value
$639.31
PnL
+$445.22
Record
52%
988-911 (1899)
Invested
$427.81
Value
$128.63
PnL
-$36.25
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
Parz1vaICTRInvested
$97.7
Value
$107.93
PnL
+$10.22
Record
72%
3438-1319 (4757)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTRInvested
$104
Value
$95
PnL
-$9
Record
57%
14700-11057 (25757)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100Invested
$15.85
Value
$12.88
PnL
-$2.72
Record
50%
501-498 (999)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.