Anduril IPO before 2027?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$3.9K
$885.78
79.7¢ → 97.6¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcat | Noavg 73.9¢ | $311.73 | $2.5K | +$737.1 | 53% 1540-1346 (2886) |
 tourists | Noavg 89¢ | $1.0K | $1.4K | +$146.48 | 66% 426-220 (646) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $96 | $97.5 | +$2.2 | 91% 915-94 (1009) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.