Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 23¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$170.14
36.4¢ → 23¢
-37% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
513h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 74.5¢ | $712.99 | $701.51 | -$5.9 | 54% 264-225 (489) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.5¢ | $522.96 | $536.66 | +$13.65 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.3¢ | $184.27 | $164.85 | -$19.55 | |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR | Yesavg 42.9¢ | $410.61 | $237.51 | -$173.1 | 57% 14690-11046 (25736) |
 rabbit007CTR | Yesavg 26¢ | $8.52 | $106.5 | -$3.31 | 53% 344-305 (649) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.6¢ | $13.46 | $19.04 | +$5.58 | 74% 2405-865 (3270) |
SN SnoorrasonCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $3.66 | $4.36 | +$0.7 | 39% 1116-1733 (2849) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$712.99
Value
$701.51
PnL
-$5.9
Record
54%
264-225 (489)
Both legs:
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTRInvested
$410.61
Value
$237.51
PnL
-$173.1
Record
57%
14690-11046 (25736)
rabbit007CTRInvested
$8.52
Value
$106.5
PnL
-$3.31
Record
53%
344-305 (649)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$13.46
Value
$19.04
PnL
+$5.58
Record
74%
2405-865 (3270)
Invested
$3.66
Value
$4.36
PnL
+$0.7
Record
39%
1116-1733 (2849)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.