Will Ratchaburi FC win on 2026-10-27?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 87¢ · $300 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$300.32
-$0.32
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 87.4¢ | $246.07 | $245.08 | -$0.99 | 59% 44203-30575 (74778) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.7¢ | $49.63 | $50.84 | +$1.21 | 58% 40340-29132 (69472) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $4.94 | $4.39 | -$0.55 | 54% 2513-2131 (4644) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.