Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs. Pakhtakor: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.4K
-$143.44
86.8¢ → 99.1¢
+14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 94¢ | $873.26 | $752.49 | -$120.77 | 50% 9398-9322 (18720) |
MY myxi | Underavg 75¢ | $499.5 | $499.5 | +$0 | 68% 297-143 (440) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 94¢ | $136.86 | $117.95 | -$18.9 | 50% 11018-11200 (22218) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 92.1¢ | $24.21 | $21.29 | -$2.92 | 60% 40192-26830 (67022) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 20¢ | $16.98 | $16.13 | -$0.85 | 54% 52380-44285 (96665) |
Invested
$873.26
Value
$752.49
PnL
-$120.77
Record
50%
9398-9322 (18720)
Invested
$499.5
Value
$499.5
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
297-143 (440)
Invested
$136.86
Value
$117.95
PnL
-$18.9
Record
50%
11018-11200 (22218)
Invested
$24.21
Value
$21.29
PnL
-$2.92
Record
60%
40192-26830 (67022)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$16.98
Value
$16.13
PnL
-$0.85
Record
54%
52380-44285 (96665)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.