Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs. Pakhtakor: O/U 2.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 48¢ · $30K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 17%
$30.2K
-$9.95
Research grade
NeutralOver at 48%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA rabbitfoot1CTR | Overavg 48.4¢ | $16.7K | $16.4K | -$301.46 | 53% 1067-938 (2005) |
 RN1 | Underavg 50.8¢ | $10.8K | $11.1K | +$370.73 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Underavg 54¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$30 | 53% 5255-4588 (9843) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Underavg 53.9¢ | $565.5 | $551.25 | -$14.25 | 47% 2260-2508 (4768) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 54¢ | $546.92 | $531.83 | -$15.09 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 54.3¢ | $653.55 | $497.67 | -$19.88 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
Invested
$16,745.4
Value
$16.4K
PnL
-$301.46
Record
53%
1067-938 (2005)
RN1Invested
$10,773.24
Value
$11.1K
PnL
+$370.73
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Invested
$1,080
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$30
Record
53%
5255-4588 (9843)
Invested
$565.5
Value
$551.25
PnL
-$14.25
Record
47%
2260-2508 (4768)
Invested
$546.92
Value
$531.83
PnL
-$15.09
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
VeryLucky888Invested
$653.55
Value
$497.67
PnL
-$19.88
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.