Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs. Pakhtakor: O/U 1.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 88¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Over13¢Under87¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$470.12

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 87.5¢

+67% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over13%

Under88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,426

Combined PnL+$163.67

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,562

Combined PnL-$633.79

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 54.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$0.11	50% 17615-17950 (35565)
RN1CTR	Overavg 45¢	$787.58	$796.11	+$8.53	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 29.7¢	$141.66	$318.3	+$176.64	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 51.8¢	$959.22	$308.99	-$650.24	51% 22118-21518 (43636)
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72<$100	Underavg 71¢	$93.72	$90.42	-$3.3	72% 2100-805 (2905)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 30.9¢	$56.28	$57.33	+$1.05	50% 11018-11200 (22218)
SA Saber-greed<$100	Underavg 56¢	$59.6	$50.02	-$9.58	59% 2434-1681 (4115)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 25.1¢	$10.88	$17.74	+$6.87	50% 9642-9563 (19205)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 49¢	$0.96	$0.98	+$0.02	50% 9398-9322 (18720)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$2,030.64

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

17615-17950 (35565)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$787.58

Value

$796.11

PnL

+$8.53

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$141.66

Value

$318.3

PnL

+$176.64

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$959.22

Value

$308.99

PnL

-$650.24

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72<$100

Under

Invested

$93.72

Value

$90.42

PnL

-$3.3

Record

72%

2100-805 (2905)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.28

Value

$57.33

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

11018-11200 (22218)

Saber-greed<$100

Under

Invested

$59.6

Value

$50.02

PnL

-$9.58

Record

59%

2434-1681 (4115)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.88

Value

$17.74

PnL

+$6.87

Record

50%

9642-9563 (19205)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

9398-9322 (18720)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.