Will Al Quwa Al Jawiya win on 2026-10-26?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 95¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Yes95¢No5¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$80.6

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 94.5¢

+24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,670

Combined PnL+$71.04

No4 traders

Total Value$286.74

Total Shares704

Combined PnL+$9.56

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 77¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$104.09	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 19.3¢	$962.2	$898.36	-$63.83	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
└ No leg	Noavg 19.3¢	$607.43	$471.65	-$135.78
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.7¢	$354.77	$426.71	+$71.94
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$986.32	$880.77	-$105.55	57% 1560-1154 (2714)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 72¢	$547.7	$688.42	+$140.73
└ No leg	Noavg 21.7¢	$438.63	$192.35	-$246.28
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 73¢	$172.91	$180.01	+$7.11	58% 37843-27569 (65412)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 70.9¢	$104.18	$106.59	+$2.41	50% 17615-17950 (35565)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$86.48	$92.12	+$5.64	50% 11018-11200 (22218)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$96.37	$60.4	-$35.97	61% 8687-5628 (14315)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 16.3¢	$10	$8.58	-$1.42	67% 22347-10922 (33269)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 18.2¢	$7.79	$6.03	-$1.76	55% 2171-1792 (3963)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 22.7¢	$4.55	$4.8	+$0.25	54% 5773-4862 (10635)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$2.86	$3.12	+$0.26	51% 22118-21518 (43636)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$2,127.79

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$104.09

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$962.2

Value

$898.36

PnL

-$63.83

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

Both legs:

No$607.4319.3¢-$135.78

Yes$354.7770.7¢+$71.94

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$986.32

Value

$880.77

PnL

-$105.55

Record

57%

1560-1154 (2714)

Both legs:

Yes$547.772¢+$140.73

No$438.6321.7¢-$246.28

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$172.91

Value

$180.01

PnL

+$7.11

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$104.18

Value

$106.59

PnL

+$2.41

Record

50%

17615-17950 (35565)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$86.48

Value

$92.12

PnL

+$5.64

Record

50%

11018-11200 (22218)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.37

Value

$60.4

PnL

-$35.97

Record

61%

8687-5628 (14315)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$8.58

PnL

-$1.42

Record

67%

22347-10922 (33269)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$7.79

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$1.76

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

5773-4862 (10635)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$3.12

PnL

+$0.26

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.