Will Pakhtakor win on 2026-10-26?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

-$950.26

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 100¢

+64% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares7,367

Combined PnL-$1.08

Yes5 traders

Total Value$97.72

Total Shares4,194

Combined PnL-$949.18

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$4.2K	$4.0K	-$140.5	51% 22118-21518 (43636)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.8¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$67.34
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$73.16
ME metski29	Noavg 58.6¢	$3.6K	$3.8K	+$207.32	45% 288-355 (643)
oieshfn345	Noavg 73.3¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$214.57	57% 1560-1154 (2714)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 33.4¢	$531.09	$246.22	-$284.86	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.7¢	$160.04	$190.67	+$30.63
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.4¢	$371.05	$55.56	-$315.49
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$42.64	$48.95	+$6.32	55% 2171-1792 (3963)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 32¢	$467.43	$35.09	-$432.34	50% 11018-11200 (22218)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$30.78	$30.74	-$0.04	50% 9642-9563 (19205)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$26.41	$23.68	-$2.73	50% 9398-9322 (18720)
JI jiafanCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$14.73	$14.54	-$0.19	59% 1435-981 (2416)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 34.3¢	$528.32	$13.85	-$514.47	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$10	$10.56	+$0.56	67% 22347-10922 (33269)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.1	-$0.1	54% 5773-4862 (10635)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$4,245.3

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$140.5

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

Both legs:

No$2,411.363.8¢-$67.34

Yes$1,83441.7¢-$73.16

metski29

Invested

$3,570

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$207.32

Record

45%

288-355 (643)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,394.34

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$214.57

Record

57%

1560-1154 (2714)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$531.09

Value

$246.22

PnL

-$284.86

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

Both legs:

No$160.0479.7¢+$30.63

Yes$371.0533.4¢-$315.49

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$42.64

Value

$48.95

PnL

+$6.32

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$467.43

Value

$35.09

PnL

-$432.34

Record

50%

11018-11200 (22218)

foooool<$100

Invested

$30.78

Value

$30.74

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

9642-9563 (19205)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.41

Value

$23.68

PnL

-$2.73

Record

50%

9398-9322 (18720)

jiafanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.73

Value

$14.54

PnL

-$0.19

Record

59%

1435-981 (2416)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$528.32

Value

$13.85

PnL

-$514.47

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10.56

PnL

+$0.56

Record

67%

22347-10922 (33269)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

5773-4862 (10635)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.