Al Qadsiah vs. Al Sadd SC: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$4.2K
-$470.4
49.3¢ → 53.5¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Overavg 49.2¢ | $3.3K | $2.7K | -$577.3 | 55% 1588-1308 (2896) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 51.2¢ | $768.75 | $892.5 | +$123.75 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 51.1¢ | $388.73 | $406.88 | +$18.14 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
RA rabbitfoot1 | Overavg 48¢ | $218.84 | $184.81 | -$34.03 | 53% 1067-938 (2005) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $7.05 | $6.08 | -$0.98 | 59% 7418-5134 (12552) |
Invested
$3,261.76
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$577.3
Record
55%
1588-1308 (2896)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$768.75
Value
$892.5
PnL
+$123.75
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$388.73
Value
$406.88
PnL
+$18.14
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
Invested
$218.84
Value
$184.81
PnL
-$34.03
Record
53%
1067-938 (2005)
Invested
$7.05
Value
$6.08
PnL
-$0.98
Record
59%
7418-5134 (12552)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.