Al Qadsiah vs. Al Sadd SC: O/U 2.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$110.54

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 99.5¢

+98% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$701.67

Total Shares1,135

Combined PnL+$130.54

Over2 traders

Total Value$83.28

Total Shares155

Combined PnL-$20.01

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 56.4¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$146.41	51% 22118-21518 (43636)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.4¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$183.63
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.3¢	$1.1K	$743.35	-$330.04
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 31.8¢	$465.37	$426.41	-$38.96	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.8¢	$364.54	$264.07	-$100.47
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.8¢	$100.83	$162.34	+$61.51
VeryLucky888	Underavg 32¢	$243.3	$363.12	+$120.82	58% 37843-27569 (65412)
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 86.9¢	$328.83	$338.55	+$9.72	72% 2100-805 (2905)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 74¢	$74.74	$50.5	-$24.24	50% 9642-9563 (19205)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 32.6¢	$28.55	$32.79	+$4.23	55% 2171-1792 (3963)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,349.42

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$146.41

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

Both legs:

Under$1,276.0356.4¢+$183.63

Over$1,073.3951.3¢-$330.04

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$465.37

Value

$426.41

PnL

-$38.96

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

Both legs:

Over$364.5431.8¢-$100.47

Under$100.8347.8¢+$61.51

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$243.3

Value

$363.12

PnL

+$120.82

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$328.83

Value

$338.55

PnL

+$9.72

Record

72%

2100-805 (2905)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$74.74

Value

$50.5

PnL

-$24.24

Record

50%

9642-9563 (19205)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.55

Value

$32.79

PnL

+$4.23

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.