Al Qadsiah vs. Al Sadd SC: O/U 0.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 100¢ · $26K held · ended Oct 26

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$26.2K

Combined PnL

$10.3K

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 100¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares53,871

Combined PnL+$7.3K

Over4 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares10,322

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 8.2¢	$3.7K	$11.8K	+$8.1K	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 88.8¢	$6.8K	$6.7K	-$160.92	51% 22118-21518 (43636)
FO foooool	Overavg 76.7¢	$1.8K	$5.7K	+$3.9K	50% 9642-9563 (19205)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 95.1¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$491.89	81% 2284-524 (2808)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 94.9¢	$661.48	$454.03	-$207.45	82% 2255-511 (2766)
FO fortunekingCTR	Underavg 5¢	$892.49	$383.77	-$508.72	59% 732-517 (1249)
FO forrestgumperCTR	Underavg 17.3¢	$356.21	$44.31	-$311.9	48% 568-607 (1175)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 2.5¢	$47.3	$40.8	-$6.49	55% 2171-1792 (3963)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 7.4¢	$3.67	$17.18	+$13.51	61% 8687-5628 (14315)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$3,711.84

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$8.1K

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$6,817.62

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$160.92

Record

51%

22118-21518 (43636)

foooool

Over

Invested

$1,849.51

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

50%

9642-9563 (19205)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$1,561.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$491.89

Record

81%

2284-524 (2808)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$661.48

Value

$454.03

PnL

-$207.45

Record

82%

2255-511 (2766)

fortunekingCTR

Under

Invested

$892.49

Value

$383.77

PnL

-$508.72

Record

59%

732-517 (1249)

forrestgumperCTR

Under

Invested

$356.21

Value

$44.31

PnL

-$311.9

Record

48%

568-607 (1175)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.3

Value

$40.8

PnL

-$6.49

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.67

Value

$17.18

PnL

+$13.51

Record

61%

8687-5628 (14315)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.